First to the good news for women in the workforce. Women in America are enrolled in greater numbers in higher education than men. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, during the fall of 2021 female students comprised 61% of the higher ed student body with men at 39%. A year earlier the stats were 58% female and 42% male. Projections for 2030 indicate that there will be 2.37 million more women in postsecondary institutions than men. The trend is clear. Women are more drawn to improving their levels of education compared to men.

This was not always the case. In 1970, male enrolment outnumbered women registrations. By 1980, the admissions records were at parity. And now here we are. The result of this direction shift should tip the balance of education’s benefits toward women more than men.

What are these benefits? Even at a time such as ours when the high cost of college education is causing more people to question its return on investment, there are still documented advantages to getting an undergraduate degree. These include:

• Higher earning potential and incomes
• More employment possibilities
• Increased job security
• More abundant compensation packages
• Enhanced personal development
• Greater networking opportunities
• Improved job satisfaction

It is not a stretch to predict that these merits will eventually give women the edge in business leadership and economic clout. A feminization of the economic picture may or may not be an overall gain. That has yet to be seen. Will competition be strengthened by defanging it to some degree or at least softening its sharpness? Again, this has yet to be seen.

However, the outlook for women employment writ large is not so rosy across the board. Among the policy-driven data Third Way examines is the non-college economy. And in this category their data dive into the numbers provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveal a troubling forecast for women who do not pursue a college education.

Estimates are that over the next decade the rate of job loss among non-college women is expected to increase significantly. Unfortunately, many non-college women are currently employed in industries that are predicted to decline.

So, let’s look at the big picture. BLS has identified the industries projected to decline economically and by extension employment-wise over the next ten years. Among these industries, 97% of the positions not requiring a college degree will disappear. Incidentally, 60% of these job losses are now middle-wage jobs. And here is the kicker. Two-thirds of these precarious jobs are currently held by women without a college degree!

Most non-college women work in jobs considered low-wage or middle wage. Examples of low-wage jobs include cashiers and fast-food cooks. Middle-wage jobs are like office clerks and retail sales supervisors. Historically, middle-wage jobs provided the means for women to support themselves and to get established in the middle class. With many of these jobs facing elimination, the strain on non-college women to afford middle class lifestyles will become more pronounced.

To add insult to injury, it is these middle-wage jobs that are most likely to be abolished, even when compared to the low-wage jobs. In fact, low-wage jobs, those under $36,700, are under less threat according to BLS than the middle-wage jobs. If true, it becomes easy to see that a migration of non-college women from middle-wage to low-wage work is likely.

The decline of middle-wage jobs is largely being caused by automation and outsourcing. And who knows to what extent Artificial Intelligence will acerbate this movement? Examples of middle-wage jobs include:

• Administrative assistants outside of legal, medical, and executive
• Customer service representatives
• Assemblers and fabricators
• Bookkeeping, auditing, and accountant clerks
• Frontline office supervisors

One possibility to avert this disturbing development is to hope the proliferation of industry credentials, certificates, and badges which qualify women (and men) for middle-wage positions without the need for college degrees will continue. Although such credentialing will not replace college degrees, in the short term they may stem the tide of disappearing middle-wage jobs.

Another thought is that the college educated women who will have more decision making authority in the future will design economic and employment solutions for the women who have been unable to go to college. My fingers are crossed.